Thinking Out Loud about Social Security Math

I ran across an interview by Alan Greenspan today in which he expressed concern about the solvency of the Social Security system.  This is what he said, “the actuaries of the Social Insurance system say that in order to be actuarially solvent through the life of the programs, we would have to cut benefits by 25 percent right now and extending into the future.”  Let that sink in--in order to get to solvency, we would need an immediate 25% cut in benefits now and forever.

Of course, no one will do that; no politician will even propose that.  To stay solvent, there must be a cut in benefits, or there must be an increase in taxes, or there must be an increase in government deficit.  There are no other solutions.  The political solution is to kick the can down the road as far as possible by deficits, since people do not vote for politicians who propose cuts to this program.

There is a widespread assumption out there that Social Security provides very poor benefits and that no one ever gets what they "put in" to Social Security.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  Of course, how much one gets in benefits depends greatly on how long one lives and on how much they earned (up to a point).  But let's look at averages, okay?

The average Social Security recipient gets $1422 per month in benefits.  So, let's say that we have a married couple, both aged 65, receiving the average total of $2844 per month in Social Security.  If you are an average American with your spouse and you both retiring at 65 and you both die at age 95, Social Security will have paid out to you (NOT including the cost of living increases that you will receive) the grand total of $1,015,920.  I am going to make a wild guess here and say that, even accounting for the present value of money, not one of my readers will have "put in" over one million dollars to Social Security.

$1,015,920. That's right--over one million dollars for the average couple, if they live for 30 years under Social Security.  Now, you can argue all you want about how much you earned it, how little it really is, etc. etc., but the bottom line is this: Social Security is guaranteeing the average American couple over one million dollars in benefits, if they live 30 years in retirement.

At the present rate of taxation, this is simply unsustainable. So, which will you choose?  Cutting benefits? Increased taxation? Increased borrowing to kick the problem down the road?  I'd be interested to know your thoughts about how to solve this troubling problem.

(For the Greenspan interview, see: https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/alan-greenspan-must-find-way-to-resolve-basic-social-security-system)

Eighteen years ago today

Eighteen years ago today, my mother-in-law was killed by a man, high on crack, who was driving a stolen vehicle and being chased at high speed by police. While there is much to be learned here about drug abuse, improper police procedures, and sin in general, what I want to focus on are two things.

First, when your world is rocked that day like ours was, you need an anchor for the soul. Jesus Christ is that anchor. I told my young sons that day when we learned their grandma was dead that right now is the moment that we will decide whether or not our faith is real, or if it’s just a pretend game. Faith in Christ is not about my best life now or God being my personal cosmic genie. Christianity is about the reality of eternity and how God made a way by the slaughter of His Son for us to be in His presence forever.

Second, my mother-in-law was a remarkable woman. Nobody loved like she did. Nobody gave and sacrificed like she did. No one was as committed to the Great Commission as she was (one example—after she died, we discovered that she gave over 40% of her income to missionaries and missions agencies). Nobody was more supportive of my training to be a pastor or of my preaching and teaching. When we were dirt poor and without a vehicle, she gave us her car to use for two months after we returned from studying in Israel until we could get the money together to buy a car. That meant that she walked to her work every weekday for over two months. When she died, the people from her supermarket brought flowers to the house, and the guy who brought them was so moved by Rose Marie’s life and example that he could barely speak. Her most common comment to me, generally accompanied with a hug, was, “Scott, I love to hear you preach.” I miss that ... a lot.
Rest well in the presence of your beloved Lord Jesus, Rose Marie Klopfenstein, until that trumpet sounds and the greatest reunion ever commences.

Is the solar eclipse part of the end of the world? No, it is not!

Solar eclipses in themselves do not portend anything related to the end of this age.  When people make comments about the solar eclipse being a harbinger of the end times, they end up looking silly.  More importantly, they make the truth of Bible prophecy look silly.  This is no small matter because making a wrong case for coming judgment leads people to doubt coming judgment at all.

Some try to look at verses like Joel 2:10, 30-31 to say that they refer to eclipses.  But these verses (and others like them in the Bible) are not referring to common astronomical phenomena.  They refer to unusual, never seen before astronomical events.  They do not refer to eclipses, since in eclipses, there is no loss of star light nor a change of the status of the moon.

In point of fact, there is a total eclipse of the sun about every 18 months somewhere on the earth.  To suggest that this coming one, because it is happening in the USA, is special or a special part of Bible prophecy, is self-centered.  We assume that we are more important than we really are and that if something is happening here, it must be of all-consuming importance.

So, enjoy the eclipse and the wonders of God’s created universe.  The people that are making a big prophetic deal out of the eclipse are the same kind of folks that sincerely thought Y2K was the end of the world too.  They were wrong then, and they are wrong now.

There will be an end to this age, and people do need awakened to the coming judgment of God.  But making a big deal of this eclipse is not the way to do that.  Let’s let the Bible speak plainly instead, “The times of ignorance God overlooked, but now he commands all people everywhere to repent, ³¹ because he has fixed a day on which he will judge the world in righteousness by a man whom he has appointed; and of this he has given assurance to all by raising him from the dead.” Acts 17:30-31  We do not know that day, so the call to repentance and faith in Jesus Christ is for all and for right now, and the eclipse makes no difference at all to that.

Change

125 years ago, East White Oak began.  This work started because some visionary people saw that changing the way that things were being done would be more effective than staying on the same course. Openness to change is a sign that we are alive.  God has designed human beings to grow and mature, not just physically but in every other way, including spiritually.

The ability to tolerate mistakes must accompany openness to change.  The reason is that not every change works out as anticipated.  If failure is not in any way acceptable, then the risk of change becomes too high.  People always default to no change in that environment.

This makes openness to discussion a key component to openness to change.  If people are not able to assess in a very comfortable way the pros and cons of new ideas, if people are able to evaluate change in a positive environment for the good of all, then the ability to change is reduced.

This does not mean that we all pretend that everything is peace and light when it is not.  Openness and positive environments for conversation do not mean that we shirk responsibility for the results of change or that we pretend that things are better than they are.  What it means is that we all know that we are on mission together, willing to change, willing to share openly and positively, and willing to evaluate clearly.  It all comes from our commitment to our Lord Jesus and to one another in Christ’s church.[i]

Biblical basis for change

The book of Acts is a book of change.   The disciples were changed both by the resurrection of Jesus and by the coming of the Holy Spirit.  In fact, it seems clear that to be a Christian is to be a person who is constantly changing because God is at work in us making us more and more like His Son.  There is something wrong with the believer who is not changing to be more like Christ.

Not only did the disciples experience personal change, the church changed a lot too.  For example, it went from about 120 people (see Acts 1:15) to over 3000 people (see Acts 2:41) in one day.  That’s a lot of change!  However, not all the changes were so nice.  God killed one couple in the church for lying (Acts 5:1-11).  Persecution scattered believers all over the place (Acts 8:1; 11:19), and new ministries in new churches began (Acts 10:44-48; 11:23-24).  The church at Antioch had some amazing teachers in Paul and Barnabas, but they gave those men away to serve as cross cultural missionaries (Acts 13:1-3).  The church became more gentile too (Acts 15:1-5).  Becoming multi-ethnic was not easy, and it required lots of change on the part of both Jewish and gentile believers (Acts 15:6-34).

Why this article?

East White Oak Bible Church has experienced lots of change in its 125 years.  Some wonderful changes had amazing impact; some changes had not very much impact at all; some changes were filled with difficulty and pain.  It would be wrong to conclude that we should avoid change, for we cannot.  The issue is not, “Will we change?”  The issue is, “How will we change?”  It is important to note that even when one is trying not to change, one is changing.  For example, if a person has a bad knee and continues to live in their two-story house rather than “change” and move, the typical result is that the person still changes and shrinks where they go in their house.  They just stop going upstairs.  That person thinks that he has not changed, but he has.  We need to keep in mind that we are always changing, whether we know it or not.  The only question is whether our changes are intentional and with God-centered purpose or not.

In this edition of the Oak Leaf and in weeks to come at church, you will learn about several changes. All of them have a God glorifying intention. One is the effort to plant a church in West Bloomington.  What a joy it is to give birth!  (But remember that giving birth is also painful.)  Another change is the way that we will be making our new church directory.  We hope that this change will help folks to get better acquainted and to grow in connection and hospitality with one another.  Another change is our testing out this summer a new way to conduct giving here at the Oak using electronic giving and offering boxes.  We simply want to honor the Lord the best way that we can with this vital means of worship.  Another change is our new website.  We are so excited to have this new platform and believe that it will be a very important tool in helping us get the Gospel out.  Apart from personal invitation (which will always be number 1), the next most common way that people check out the Oak is by going to our website.  And speaking of “the Oak,” we are highlighting this nickname over our other nicknames on our website and other literature.  There is an article in this Oak Leaf explaining why.  It would also be appropriate to mention some of the physical changes that are happening in our facility as well—replacing the concrete pad at our main entry way; the renovation of the banquet room, the reconfiguration of the utility room, removal of some dark stains in our worship center—these are just a few of the changes that you will see this summer.

I can make a prediction.  You will love some of the changes, will be “so so” about others and will not like still others.  It is also almost certain that someone will not understand the purpose of one or more of these changes.  That’s okay.  Give change time to settle in your heart.  Even when you think you are not changing, you are.  And it is far better to make changes proactively, even where failure is possible, than to seek not to make changes at all. 

There is a line from one of my favorite hymns, “Be Still, My Soul,” that goes, “In every change, He faithful will remain.”  While change is inevitable for us, I am grateful that our God is unchanging, immutable in His Being and in His nature.  It is in fact God’s unchanging nature that makes change so important for us.  Imagine how horrible it would be if we could not change.  We would never be able to become more like Jesus Christ.  Our church would never be able more closely to conform to the will of her Master.  God has so designed it that we change because He does not.

Lord, change me to be like your Son.  Change our church to be an ever-clearer reflection of Your Son and the Good News about Him.  Through Christ we pray it, Amen.

Pastor Scott

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[i] Here is an article about change in the work environment where I found several of these ideas.  https://www.leader-values.com/article.php?aid=107